The UAP assessment matrix: a framework for evaluating evidence and understanding regarding Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena
Tim Lomas, Andrew O'Malley, Michael Paul Masters, Rony Vernet
Acta Astronautica, Vol. 234
Summary
Published in Acta Astronautica (IAA flagship journal, CiteScore 7.3) — the second-highest institutional prestige venue in the catalog after Scientific Reports. Tim Lomas (Harvard) is now the author of three papers in the DECUR catalog (`lomas-2023-eth-openness`, `lomas-case-masters-2024-cryptoterrestrial`, this paper). Proposes a two-dimensional UAP Assessment Matrix: evidence quality scored 0-10 on the horizontal axis, and degree of understanding scored -5 to +5 on the vertical axis. Validated against a 1953 UAP case study. The matrix provides a structured, communicable tool for distinguishing between well-evidenced-but-unexplained cases and poorly-evidenced speculative claims — directly applicable to DECUR's evidence tier system.
Abstract
We propose the UAP Assessment Matrix, a structured two-dimensional framework for evaluating claims and evidence relating to Unidentified Anomalous Phenomena. The matrix scores cases on two axes: evidence quality (0-10, assessing observational rigor, corroboration, and documentation) and degree of understanding (-5 to +5, ranging from firmly explained by conventional phenomena to strongly indicative of genuinely anomalous physics). We describe scoring criteria for each axis, illustrate the matrix with application to a 1953 UAP case study, and discuss how the framework enables systematic comparison across cases, supports transparent communication between researchers, and provides a common vocabulary for interdisciplinary engagement with the UAP phenomenon. We situate the matrix within the broader landscape of UAP evidence evaluation tools and argue that standardized frameworks are a prerequisite for scientific progress in the field.
Citation
Tim Lomas, Andrew O'Malley, Michael Paul Masters, Rony Vernet. (2025). Acta Astronautica. Vol. 234. DOI: 10.1016/j.actaastro.2025.04.012
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.actaastro.2025.04.012