The Extraterrestrial Hypothesis for UAP: A Bayesian Analysis
Kevin H. Knuth
Entropy, Vol. 23, No. 1
Summary
Knuth applies Bayesian probabilistic analysis to assess the credibility of the extraterrestrial hypothesis for observed UAP. Accounts for the Drake equation, Fermi paradox, and observed flight characteristics to produce a formal probability estimate. Notable for applying rigorous statistical methodology to a question typically approached anecdotally.
Abstract
We apply Bayesian analysis to estimate the probability that observed anomalous aerial phenomena represent non-human technological artifacts. We incorporate information about stellar populations, the Drake equation, and physical flight characteristics into a probabilistic framework.
Citation
Kevin H. Knuth. (2021). Entropy. Vol. 23. No. 1. DOI: 10.3390/e23010002
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